“In terms of the global picture, assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is of course not good news from a global oil supply point of view.”

Monbiot: Around 2020. That casts the issue in quite a different light. Mr Birol’s date, if correct, gives us about 11 years to prepare.

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This is the deception that forms the basis of Monbiot’s alarmist claims. He bases the crisis on a plateau of conventional oil production. The problem for Monbiot’s claim is that non-conventional oil, which includes even offshore production, is produced at an average cost of well under current spot oil prices. An adjustment to the era of mostly non-convential oil production can still be a cheaper price. Where’s the problem? “Prepare” for WHAT exactly? Can’t we survive if oil costs $35/barrel?